gone by 2050?

[reefworm]

Not that coral reef die-off is new news, but it was distressing to see this article on CNN:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/12/10/coral.destruction/index.html

less than 1 generation and the only reefs left may be the ones in our little boxes of water. it may behoove us to try to develop more captive bred species

[ludnix]

I personally do not care for these sorts of estimates. There is rarely any explanation as to how one can come up with that drastic of an estimate and it seems like it's only being used to push a point, not an actual prediction based on anything.

[jimmyPx]

I agree. These gloom and doom predictions are usually never accurate. In addition, they don't mention that there are coral reefs all over the world and some are healthy and others are not.

I have no doubt that there will be living coral reefs in the ocean in 50 years. However, I believe that those near higher population centers may be gone due to overfishing, pollution, and way too high level of nutrients (especially phosphate).

[crvz]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13914483#post13914483 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by ludnix
I personally do not care for these sorts of estimates. There is rarely any explanation as to how one can come up with that drastic of an estimate and it seems like it's only being used to push a point, not an actual prediction based on anything.

What? Global warming is being used to push political agendas?!? ;)

Agreed, without actual data that I can review I put little heed into articles such as this. Not that there's no concern, I'm so ignorant as to think that, but CNN in particular drips of media spin. Having worked for the government for years, and read articles about the work I've been involved with, I have first hand experience of how poorly their reporting represents reality.

[Michael]

im a little concerned but i have seen tv shows which say some areas are protected and artificial reefs being developed, hope its true, for all our sakes especially the reefs and livestock, we need more tank bred fish and more fragging of corals tbh, hopefully this will become more common place

[HippieSmell]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13914647#post13914647 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by jimmyPx
I agree. These gloom and doom predictions are usually never accurate. In addition, they don't mention that there are coral reefs all over the world and some are healthy and others are not.

Actually, they did: "Despite the report's pessimism, researchers see some encouraging signs. Forty-five percent of the world's reefs are currently in good health and the hope remains that damaged reefs can recover and adjust to the changing conditions."

As for doom and gloom, 20% of the reefs have already been lost. I don't know how you can see that magnitude of decline and not think that there is a major problem and potential for a bleak future. You people need to pull your heads out of the sand.

[aquaman67]

Due to the large amount of sea water that had evaporated and been deposited as snow and ice in northern hemisphere glaciers, 20,000 years ago (during the most recent ice age) sea level was 394 feet lower than it is today.
As recently (in geological terms) as 7,000 years ago the ocean was still 66 feet lower than today. Many reefs, now fossils, have been drowned out by the raising sea from melting glaciers. As massive as the Great Barrier Reef is, it's only 5,000 years old.

As the level of the ocean changes, old reefs die and new ones are created. So goes the cycle of the Earth. While it's sad to witness the death of a reef, we will not be without reefs in the future. New life will be born, as it has since time itself. Reefs have died and been born since the beginning of time and will continue to do so whether we are here or not.

[greenbean36191]

As the level of the ocean changes, old reefs die and new ones are created. So goes the cycle of the Earth. While it's sad to witness the death of a reef, we will not be without reefs in the future. New life will be born, as it has since time itself. Reefs have died and been born since the beginning of time and will continue to do so whether we are here or not.
This assumes that the threats now are the same threats that occurred during the last 20,000 years which isn't even close to being true. A big factor in that 2050 estimate is acidification, which hasn't been comparable to projected levels since the time of the dinosaurs. During that time all reefs did disappear for about 16 million years and modern corals only evolved after that. Prior to that there had been multiple groups of reef forming organism, most of which are now extinct.

Threats are synergistic too, so animals surviving threats such as increased temps or rising sea levels singly doesn't mean much about their ability to survive increasing temps coupled with acidification, eutrophication, and disease outbreaks. Within the last 20 years we've already seen complete phase shifts throughout the Caribbean that are unprecedented in at least the last 3,000 years so the assumption that reefs have been there for thousands of years, so we can't break them doesn't hold water.

[greenbean36191]

There is rarely any explanation as to how one can come up with that drastic of an estimate and it seems like it's only being used to push a point, not an actual prediction based on anything.
Despite the vague news report (because the final GCRMN report isn't even out yet), the projections are based on long-term measurements of coral cover and diversity and the relationship between atmospheric CO2 and oceanic pH and carbonate chemistry. They assume that we aren't going to make any drastic changes within the next 8-10 years or so, which is the period that makes the difference, and extrapolate recent trends out to 2050. At that point there is nowhere left in the ocean that supports active reef growth. However, that does not mean that all reefs or all corals will be gone yet.

[Ehgemus]

I was just going to say that!:lol:

[Laddy]

I love CNN with all my heart, where else can you get biased reports about politics, international affairs, sports, weather, pop culture, Ted Turners life story, and a man they call "wolfie". :D :D

You lost me when you wrote "CN ............

[reidcrandall]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13914959#post13914959 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by crvz
What? Global warming is being used to push political agendas?!? ;)

Politicians would never do anything other than for OUR best interests. To suggest otherwise is just crazy!

[klm2500hd]

Don't see why it matters, the world is going to end on Dec 21st 2012. The History channel told me so.

[reefworm]

Point to a news source without a bias. They all do in that true objectivity requires something close to omniscience, which no human has - we all have an agenda. And we tend to gravitate toward those sources with which we share a perspective. CNN just happened to have the reef story I saw today in my normal scan of CNN, MSNBC, FOX, CS Monitor, Wall St. Journal, Al Jazeera, Arab World News, BBC and NPR [and the Onion]. I thought the article would concern those who come here and engender some discussion. Mission accomplished. Thanks for the input everyone. By all means continue to weigh in. These issues are not simple and one-dimensional.

[kingsland]

Politicians have only their own self interest at the root of most of their actions.

[HippieSmell]

I don't know why some of you are bringing politics into this. The article is about a scientific report, not politics. Maybe some of you should look at data instead of instantly concluding that any environmental article pointing towards a less than rosy future is a political scheme to somehow bilk you out of your money and freedom. Ignorance really is bliss.

[korndogg091]

im curious and maybe some one can explain it for me. but we all keep our tanks at all different temps. Some keep it as cool as 70 while i know some keep in in the low 80's. its a pretty good difference in temp but yet success in both scenarios. they say global warming it only a degree or so and that's what killing to reefs, how can this be?

[reefworm]

some reading for you...
http://www.reefcentral.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=1525963

[Kenmx10]

Revelation 11:18 But the nations became wrathful, and your own wrath came, and the appointed time for the dead to be judged, and to give [their] reward to your slaves the prophets and to the holy ones and to those fearing your name, the small and the great, and to bring to ruin those ruining the earth.”

Isaiah 65:17 For here I am creating new heavens and a new earth; and the former things will not be called to mind, neither will they come up into the heart. 18_But exult, YOU people, and be joyful forever in what I am creating.

[reefworm]

the same book also requires us to be good stewards of the earth. the charge to rule it was never rescinded, just complicated

[HippieSmell]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13918660#post13918660 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by Kenmx10
Revelation 11:18 But the nations became wrathful, and your own wrath came, and the appointed time for the dead to be judged, and to give [their] reward to your slaves the prophets and to the holy ones and to those fearing your name, the small and the great, and to bring to ruin those ruining the earth.”

Isaiah 65:17 For here I am creating new heavens and a new earth; and the former things will not be called to mind, neither will they come up into the heart. 18_But exult, YOU people, and be joyful forever in what I am creating.
And now it's complete, the final piece of the ignorance puzzle. No offense, but it's this kind of laissez faire attitude that is compounding the problem. Too many people use religion to pass the buck onto God, the be-all-end-all black hole of buck passing. I mean, why take responsibility for yourself if you can just blame it on God's will?

[Kenmx10]

It was a direct quote. Not from me, From God himself. So who are you really mad at?

[JustinReef]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13918843#post13918843 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by Kenmx10
It was a direct quote. Not from me, From God himself. So who are you really mad at?

LOL!

Man I gotta use this as a quote in my sig! This made me laugh really hard. Thanks!

[JustinReef]

All I can say is whether its as bleek as CNN has made it sound or not, we made this huge problem and we need to start to fix it.

[HippieSmell]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13918843#post13918843 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by Kenmx10
It was a direct quote. Not from me, From God himself. So who are you really mad at?
From God himself? You really believe that, don't you? Well then, I guess I'm mad at you for being ignorant.

[klm2500hd]

The earth has experienced drastic climate and animal population changes long before cars had exhaust pipes and factories were invented. Even before humans evolved. Why do humans now think we can (and should) stop natural changes? History repeats itself, and the earth will change again. No amount of regulation is going to stop it.

[m2434]

Well if you look at natural cycles, the earth right now, should be cooling down, but instead it's warming up. If you believe in the natural cycle explanation, this fact should at least raise some eyebrows, but I guess naïvety is bliss :lol:

[m2434]

Also, think about what happens to the pH of your tank when CO2 levels rise in your house. Now look at historic atmospheric CO2 data. Interestingly, atmospheric CO2 levels actually haven't risen as much as expected. The reason should be fairly obvious to us in the hobby. Our tanks/the ocean absorbs it....

I'm not saying the world is coming to an end, but coral reefs will get sparser, I don't think that there is much chance of avoiding this outcome...

[RevHtree]

CNN? Enough said! ;)

[klm2500hd]

First the warm up, then the cool down.

[eyesinthedrk]

the ice age started by global cooling, and ended by global warming, the sahara was once a thriving jungle and the dakota bad lands were once a sea floor, and none.....not one...of these drastic diffrences was the fault of man, things come and things go, some species go extinct some evolve into to species, it is the way of the world

now im not saying since a particular reef is in decline build a bridge over it, what i am saying is dont feel so guilty about buying a playstation or flushing your toilet

[Mr..Tang]

actually the last decade shows a decline in temps. So I think what we have seen in the recent past has been fluctuations in the temp... I'm not saying that we as humans are not responsible for acid rain or the polar icecaps melting a little... I will say that some of our activities have help make it appear we have caused global warming... I think if we were to blame anyone or anyone thing, we should look at the sun. The solar flares and radiation alone form the sun can cause spikes in our temps. thus causing some ice to melt..

As far as the reefs go, I think dumping raw sewage in our bays and chemical runoff from industrial plants are causing most of problems with the reefs dieing... So question; Do we change our industrial ways???? Or keep going full steam ahead?

My answer; I think as long as the all matter dollar is involved nothing will ever change... If you look back in our history(world history, not just American) ever major decision boils down to money... If you look hard enough... Until people realize that that extra million isn't going to make you any happier than nothing will change.

When people start to do things that not only benefit themselves but others( and do it for that reason) we will see BIG changes in our world.....
But I don't think that will ever change in our life times.. People are to worried about possessions and money

just my Thursday morning rant

[greenbean36191]

im curious and maybe some one can explain it for me. but we all keep our tanks at all different temps. Some keep it as cool as 70 while i know some keep in in the low 80's. its a pretty good difference in temp but yet success in both scenarios. they say global warming it only a degree or so and that's what killing to reefs, how can this be?
While corals can acclimatize to a wide range of temps, there are absolute limits- which is why shallow coral reefs aren't found in temperate areas. Most corals currently live where they experience summertime maximum temps within about 1-2 deg C of their maximum temps. If you exceed that temp they bleach and many die. The more frequent the bleaching events, the higher mortality because the corals have less time to recover from the past events. Prior to the 1980s these events were happening on decadal timescales. Today they're happening 2 or 3 times a decade on many reefs and the frequency is accelerating. One event every 1-2 years is about the limit of what corals can stand, assuming they aren't facing other threats concurrently (which they are).

There are some cases of corals migrating northward to better temps, but the reef as a functioning unit doesn't move together and water chemistry puts absolute limits on how far north they can move. As CO2 increases, that limit is being shifted south.

[Jflip2002]

I think itd be pretty ignorant to say the reefs are not in danger. The fact that they take up .71% of our earth, yet house 1/3 of ALL fish (fresh or marine) makes it something we should protect with absolute diligence. If you think the prediction of 2050 is off, thats fine. Who knows really? It shouldnt matter if its 2050, 2080, or 3010... hell if they arent in danger even, it shouldnt matter. More should be done to protect them. Period.

[greenbean36191]

The earth has experienced drastic climate and animal population changes long before cars had exhaust pipes and factories were invented. Even before humans evolved.
This is true, but it assumes that only nature can have an impact on the environment and anything man does cannot change that.

If that's the case then there should be some combination of natural forcings alone- Milankovitch cycles, El Nino/La Nina, volcanoes, changes in cloud cover, etc. that can account for the direction and magnitude of change. There's not.

There should also be an explanation of why a 34% increase in the second most important GHG has no affect on temps. There's not.

Why do humans now think we can (and should) stop natural changes?
I don't think anyone thinks we should. However, we do have the capacity and imperative to stop man-made changes.

actually the last decade shows a decline in temps. So I think what we have seen in the recent past has been fluctuations in the temp...
Actually it doesn't. Hadcrut3v, GISS, and UAH all show an increase (not statistically significant) in temps over the past ten years. Temps have almost plateaued since 1998, but that still represents a level significantly above the earlier half of the century.

I think if we were to blame anyone or anyone thing, we should look at the sun. The solar flares and radiation alone form the sun can cause spikes in our temps. thus causing some ice to melt..
They could, but there is no evidence that they have. There have been no long-term trends in sunspots or cosmic rays since the 1950s and no trends in total irradiance or UV intensity since the 70's when records start.

[HippieSmell]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13919923#post13919923 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by eyesinthedrk
now im not saying since a particular reef is in decline build a bridge over it, what i am saying is dont feel so guilty about buying a playstation or flushing your toilet
Says the oil field salesman as he pines for the days when oil was $150 per barrel. It's understandable that a decline in consumption is a threat to you.

[Kenmx10]

When we run out of live rock we can always use brick. Or when the fish are gone we can make ourselves a minature desert tank with snakes and lizards. So it doesnt really matter if we keep dumping oil in our oceans, or chemical waste in our rivers. Humans live too long now anyway. In 1900 the average lifespan of a man was 45. So a little skin cancer wont hurt. Why change now?

[reidcrandall]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13917456#post13917456 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by klm2500hd
Don't see why it matters, the world is going to end on Dec 21st 2012. The History channel told me so.

I saw that too! It was very disheartening.

[HippieSmell]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13922391#post13922391 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by Kenmx10
When we run out of live rock we can always use brick. Or when the fish are gone we can make ourselves a minature desert tank with snakes and lizards. So it doesnt really matter if we keep dumping oil in our oceans, or chemical waste in our rivers. Humans live too long now anyway. In 1900 the average lifespan of a man was 45. So a little skin cancer wont hurt. Why change now?
Now that I know you're a troll, I'll be sure to ignore you.

[Mr..Tang]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&
postid=13922961#post13922961 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by HippieSmell
Now that I know you're a troll, I'll be sure to ignore you.

You know the problem is that when someone threatens or has another opinion on a subject than you do, people like you go and call names or make fun of their relationship with God. You joke about him believing the Bible but you believe what a bunch of scientists say... You ever heard the old saying; "if something is created, than theirs a creator" Shame on you for disallowing the right of someone elses opinion..

[Elan L.]

The problem here is no one wants to listen to the other side, some people beleive in god, others in science, i beleive in both. Why does it have to be one or the other?

Whether people want to beleive it or not, the Earth is changing because of us. yes, there are many things that happen naturally because we dont operate a giant machine that makes the world go round, but would it really hurt to just try to make a difference instead of pushing aside? come on people, this is like in elementary school, your teacher says to pick up a mess, but you argue you didnt make it, but it is still there and you should pick it upanyway . Thats what i learned. It doesnt hurt to help.

[HippieSmell]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13923336#post13923336 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by Mr..Tang
You know the problem is that when someone threatens or has another opinion on a subject than you do, people like you go and call names or make fun of their relationship with God. You joke about him believing the Bible but you believe what a bunch of scientists say... You ever heard the old saying; "if something is created, than theirs a creator" Shame on you for disallowing the right of someone elses opinion..
Believing that the Bible is the word of God is miles away from believing science, because science can be proven. The Bible can be proven to an extent as well, but the problem is that it points in the opposite direction the fundamentalists claim it does, so it doesn't sit very well with them.

As far as a creator is concerned: fine, there might be, but you can't claim the Bible is written by the creator. And I'm sorry if I wasn't allowing someone else to have an opinion, because you can have as many opinions as you want, just don't pass it off as fact or anything more substantial than a fart in the wind.

[Elan L.]

I didnt say i beleived in the bible, i said i beleived in god, well i actually dont really know if i do. There is a difference. I beleive the same as you about evolution and that creationism is bull (sorry i offend anyone). I am a science person myself (my mom studies stuff like this) but i can have some faith too i dont have to deny it.

[Laddy]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13918324#post13918324 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by HippieSmell
I don't know why some of you are bringing politics into this. The article is about a scientific report, not politics. Maybe some of you should look at data instead of instantly concluding that any environmental article pointing towards a less than rosy future is a political scheme to somehow bilk you out of your money and freedom. Ignorance really is bliss.

Data? Don't you know that data is bias as well? It's not like "data" falls from the sky, but rather its created.

Data told me to sell treasuries and buy mortgage backed securities two years ago.......that trade didn't go so well for my clients now did it?

[GSMguy]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13917456#post13917456 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by klm2500hd
Don't see why it matters, the world is going to end on Dec 21st 2012. The History channel told me so.

New update from some random cable channel, the north and south poles are demgagnetizing thus releasing all of the atmosphere to space, we will all die from skin cancer

[aquaman67]

I'm not sure what "demgagnetizing" is, but I'm against it...

[Elan L.]

<a href=showthread.php?s=&postid=13923735#post13923735 target=_blank>Originally posted</a> by GSMguy
New update from some random cable channel, the north and south poles are demgagnetizing thus releasing all of the atmosphere to space, we will all die from skin cancer

noooo, is it blowupable??

[FishNFun]

This is another one of those hypocritical threads that based on RC forum rules should be shut down but, because it suits the fancy of an RC team member, it's allowed to continue.

Hmmm, let's see...it's touched on politics, religion and there's been a few personal snarks thrown around. Those must just be posting "guides" rather than actual rules huh? ANARCHY! ANARCHY!

[reefworm]

fishnfun: I agree the thread has wandered far from the topic and my stated intent. If the discussion remains as is, I would agree to shut it down myself if I could. However, the discussion early on was stimulating and informative. The back and forth between Mr. Tang and Greenbean was valuable. Perhaps we can get back to that level of discussion. If this were my classroom, I would stare at the off-topic students until things got quiet and they realized it was time to stop. ;)

[Patroklos]

As for doom and gloom, 20% of the reefs have already been lost.

What type of habitat is that not true for? As cities and populations expand what do you think has happened to forests/jungle/grass lands?

Unless you draconian population controls, natural enviroments are going to be displaced by human ones. Reefs have probably had it easy compared to some other habitats.

[greenbean36191]

This is another one of those hypocritical threads that based on RC forum rules should be shut down but, because it suits the fancy of an RC team member, it's allowed to continue.
Team RC has no more control over which threads get closed than you do. All we can do is report those that get into the taboo topics of religion and politics- which I have done. ;)

[cward]

This thread has ran it's course.....closed